Marketing textbook, chapter 7

Many people who want to buy a flight ticket at a reasonable price believe that they need to book as early as possible or wait for a last-minute offer. A recent study disproves this widespread view.

The Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC) analysed approximately 130 million airline tickets purchased in the USA over a period of 19 months. The results accurately reflect the pricing of the providers and the purchasing behaviour of air travellers. Holidaymakers and business travellers book their domestic flights on average 32 days before departure, while tickets for international flights are also purchased on average 59 days in advance, i.e. almost twice as far in advance. The number of bookings for domestic flights rises sharply around 100 days before departure, and for international flights around 200 days.

The price differentiation of air travel providers over time is interesting: Domestic flights cost an average of just under USD 496 during the survey period, although prices varied widely. The lowest prices demanded by providers were found 100 to 50 days before departure. At USD 411, the average ticket price in this period was around 17 per cent lower than the average price for the entire survey period (see figure on the left). According to ARC's empirical study, the most favourable time to purchase a ticket for a domestic flight is 57 days, i.e. almost two months before departure.

The analysis of price demands for international flights showed that ticket prices were lowest between 225 and 150 days before departure and also changed little during this time frame. The average ticket price for an international flight in this period was 24 per cent below the average price for the entire survey period. The cheapest average price for an international flight was observed 171 days before departure.

The empirical study also revealed a price differentiation depending on the day of the week on which the flight takes place: The lowest average price for both domestic and international flights was found to be on Sundays. Flights are also significantly cheaper on Saturdays, while providers charge the highest prices on weekdays because many business travellers are on the move (see figure on the right).

The results of the ARC study show that early or last-minute bookings are not advantageous for air travellers. For domestic and international flights, the chance of buying a particularly cheap flight ticket is greatest in the period in between, whereby this time window is closer to the departure date for domestic flights than for international flights. The best days of the week for a cheap flight are generally Saturday and Sunday.

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Sources:

• http://www.focus.de/reisen/flug/die-beste-zeit-flugtickets-zu-kaufen-deswegen-haben-sie-bisher-immer-zum-falschen-zeitpunkt-gebucht_id_4626980.html (as at 27 June 2022).